A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
